NFL Fantasy Breakdown: Chicago Bears

By Matt Schauf

This is the 14th in a series of 32 team breakdowns to accompany our Wednesday and Thursday breakdowns on the Fantasy Lunch on The Fantasy Sports Channel.

Who was fantasy-worthy last year?

Well … Matt Forte was FAR from worthy of his draft slot, no matter where you had him in the first round. Anyone who paid any attention to fantasy football last year is well aware of at least enough of the details, so there’s little reason to go extreme with specifics. It’s worth noting that Forte did still wind up as the No. 12 running back in a point-per-reception format, but the overall point total belies a guy who was average or worse from week to week.

For all of his struggles on the field, Jay Cutler was a solid fantasy quarterback in a system such as ours here and at RapidDraft.com, where turnovers don’t matter. (The Bears are considering adopting our scoring model for 2010.) Obviously, those 26 interceptions look terrible, and Cutler himself did on too many occasions, but he also tied for eighth in the league with 27 touchdown passes.

Further, Cutler’s bad numbers were largely concentrated in four games: Week 1 at Green Bay, Week 7 at Cincinnati, Week 10 at San Francisco and Week 15 at Baltimore. Two of those opponents ranked among the league’s nine stingiest in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks -- Baltimore at 6, Cincinnati at 9 -- making those games foreseeable bumps. The Packers opener and Thursday night visit to the Niners were utter debacles, but Cutler also had plenty of worthwhile fantasy outings. He put up a 25-11 TD-INT ratio in the other 12 games, with two touchdowns or more eight times. That came with him (and the coaches) trying to figure out the receiving corps and without the added pass-happiness of Mike Martz.

Devin Aromashodu sure looked like he would have been more fantasy relevant if he had gotten on the field earlier. He was awesome over the final four games, with 22 catches for 282 yards and four touchdowns. Anyone who took a chance on him in fantasy championship week (16) and got seven receptions, 150 yards and a touchdown probably now has Aromashodu tattooed diagonally across his back.

Devin Hester started the season well for PPR owners, catching at least four balls each of the first 10 games except for the first meeting with Detroit (in which he got hurt and left early). A mere three touchdowns in that timeframe were nothing special, but the overall numbers presented a clear step forward for Hester as a receiver.

Johnny Knox was the other receiver to flash some potential, but he was more disappointing than useful after a strong Week 2 (six catches, 70 yards, touchdown). His only comparable game came in Week 14, and most owners who jumped on him as a free agent early had probably seen too many 5- and 6-point PPR lines from him to be trusting at that point.

Greg Olsen has become a lightning rod (or maybe his value has just been struck) since Mike Martz came to town, but he was a solid fantasy performer last year. He ranked eighth among tight ends in targets and 10^th in PPR points. Unfortunately, one of his two best games came in Week 17, and he went six straight games (Week 10 through Week 15) without finding the end zone. His four consecutive outings of three or fewer catches right at fantasy crunch time -- weeks 13-16 -- certainly didn’t endear him to any of his owners either, but it was a decent season overall.

What has changed?

Oh, not much … other than, you know, the Bears adding the most polarizing and publicized offensive coordinator of at least the past 11 years.

The only real significant personnel change on offense is the addition of free-agent Chester Taylor, but all other factors pale in comparison to the impact of Martz. Although it’s tough to condense the Martz effect too succinctly, I think this is probably the best way to do so …

In case the table doesn’t make immediate sense to you, it represents the facts from every Martz-led offense in the NFL. He spent 1999 as the Rams’ offensive coordinator before taking over as head coach in 2000 upon Dick Vermeil’s retirement. After St. Louis gave him the boot during the 2005 season, he latched on as the coordinator in Detroit for two years and then San Francisco for one.

As you can clearly see in the chart, Martz’s craving for the pass isn’t overstated. The only year in which his offense rated higher than 22^nd in rushing attempts was 1999, when he took over the unit under an already-established regime. Even in that season, Marshall Faulk -- arguably, I suppose, the league’s best back at that time -- caught just one more pass in his first year as a Ram than in his final Colts season, which garnering 71 fewer carries.

It’s tough to argue too much with an offense that led the NFL in scoring in Martz’s first three years before dropping to 19^th and bouncing back to second.

Who looks good?

Even Cutler backers have to admit that he comes with plenty of risk … except in our game.

The risk with Cutler is that he’s every bit as capable of tossing three picks as three touchdowns in a given outing. In our system that is free of negative points, such a game from Cutler would merely not help you rather than inflict the typical harm. Take away that aspect, and Cutler looks pretty good, especially in the pass-happier system and at a time when he’s leaving the board as the 10^th quarterback.

On a related note, it’s tough not to be optimistic about his top three wide receivers as well. In PPR drafts to this point, Aromashodu is surprisingly still averaging the highest spot, leaving the board at the end of Round 7. Hester and Knox are both going in the 10^th-round range. I like Aromashodu, as I’ve said in this space before, but with all signs over the past couple of months pointing to Hester and Knox all but having the starting jobs locked up, that seems high for him.

At the same time, that ADP hasn’t been reflected in the drafts I’ve done. He might have been going in the range of rounds 6 to 8 early in the spring, but ever since the reports started of the actual expected lineup, I’ve always seen Aromashodu make it to the double-digit rounds. At that point, I like the value on any of the three. We are, after all, talking about a Mike Martz offense here. The guy parks his family cars in four-wide formations. When last Martz was an offensive coordinator, in 2008 with the Niners, his team ranked seventh in the league in percentage of plays run from three-wide and second in four-wide percentage. That was with a team whose top three wideouts were the remainder of Isaac Bruce, Bryant “I swear I’m going to break out one of these years” Johnson and a mostly injured Josh Morgan (who finished the year with 20 catches).

All three of these guys will be on the field enough to basically qualify as starters. Martz has spoken publicly about his feeling that Hester can be elite, and the other two have been praised as well. I like Hester first, by virtue of his experience, talent, pre-injury 2009 performance and position in his coordinator’s mind. Knox has clear upside because of his blazing speed, but I’m a little more wary of him when he climbs into the single-digit rounds, which seems to be happening more often. The RapidDraft Pros took those two in rounds 6 and 9, respectively, in my last run-through there. On average, by early RD ADP rankings, Hester is a seventh-rounder and Knox a 10th.

Aromashodu still fits more of a sleeper role, though he sits just three RD ADP spots behind Knox right now. Anyone who thinks his size precludes him from success under Martz should look back at the 2006 season Roy Williams had under Martz: 82 catches, 1,310 yards and 7 touchdowns. Williams stands 6-3, 215; Aromashodu 6-2, 201. Williams had the advantage of weaker corps mates in 2006 with Detroit, but my point is that a wide receiver doesn’t have to stand 6 feet or shorter to be useful to Martz.

Who doesn’t?

Matt Forte and I have a strange relationship. (Not that there’s anything wrong with that.)

I was pretty much uninterested in the guy as a rookie, figuring that the extreme workload of his final college season plus a weak Bears line added up to no better than an average season for the 2008 rookie. He, of course, was a PPR demon that year, leading me to move him atop my board in 2009 (which, after all, was where he finished the previous campaign). Oops.

So, bring on 2010, with every reason for me to be lukewarm, and I was for a while. Then I started to look at the numbers for Frank Gore in 2008 under Martz (13^th in fantasy points per game among PPR backs, despite just six touchdowns), and even more so Kevin Jones back in 2006 (6^th in points per game, including 61 catches in just 12 outings). That started to get me excited, based on the reception totals that Forte had already produced and all the reports of him being healthier and looking faster this spring.

Well, I still think that the 2010 Forte comes with upside, but I had to dilute my excitement with some reality. For starters, take another look at the chart of run-pass splits for Martz offenses above. Then, divvy up those carries between Forte and Chester Taylor. I still believe in Forte as the starter and don’t think they’ll go 50-50, but it’s tough to realistically assume Forte will get much past 200 carries, which the past tells us would put him around 800 yards rushing.

Similarly, if Martz likes those receivers as much as he says, and the team brought in Taylor to suit his preferences, then Forte also seems likely to catch fewer passes than in his previous two seasons. I once thought he was looking like a solid third-rounder with upside beyond that. Now, I have to say Forte belongs more in the fifth- or sixth-round range of PPR drafts that he has spent most of early draft season. (For what it’s worth, though, I do still believe in him as a long-term prospect. He’ll be in Chicago longer than Martz … or get his shot elsewhere.)

Taylor is a solid bet at the 10^th-round rate he’s pulling down right now, but I don’t believe in him as Bears primary back unless Forte gets hurt. Anyone who points out Forte’s lackluster rushing rates through his first two seasons also must realize that Taylor went for 4, 4 and 3.6 in three of his four Vikings seasons behind better blockers.

Finally, it’s impossible to classify a tight end as “looks good” under Martz, but I also won’t scold anyone for taking a late shot at Greg Olsen. The underwhelming history of tight end stats under Martz has been well-documented. What hasn’t been mentioned so often is that, outside of Vernon Davis’ second season (2008), the rest of the candidates was a d’oh pourri of Dan Campbells, Ernie Conwells and Brandon Manumaleunas.

Perhaps that’s by design, as Martz doesn’t want real pass catchers at the position (he did bring Manumaleuna to Chicago), but he hasn’t had many players like Olsen, who has always projected more like a big receiver. I’m not drafting him ahead of John Carlson, but Olsen is a fine gamble as a later second tight end. If he lives down to history, he’ll be easy to dump.

The D

Remember when the Bears had a relevant fantasy defense? Yeah, neither do I …

OK, I’m exaggerating there for joke purposes, but Chicago has obviously lost much of the luster off what used to be consistently one of the first five team defenses off the fantasy board. The Bears’ defense did finish 2008 as a starter-level unit, but any value it comes across at this point tends to be tied more to luck.

Look no further than the 22 interceptions that tied for third in the league that season as a key element to the Bears’ relative statistical success. Unfortunately, either side of that year found a lower total, with Chicago tying for 17^th in that category in 2007 and 22^nd in 2009. The Bears have also ranked 16^th or worse in points allowed over the past three years and 17^th or worse in yards allowed. A pass rush that ranked sixth in the NFL in 2007 has also sagged since, dipping to 22^nd (tied) in 2008 before rebounding a bit to tie for 13^th last year.

To realize any 2010 upside, the Bears will probably need another strong interception total, and that is possible. CB Zack Bowman picked off six passes last year despite starting just 12 times (though he played in every game). On the other side, Charles Tillman opened his career with four interceptions or more in three of his first four seasons. Just twice in seven years has he grabbed fewer than three. There is further turnover potential at safety with the return of Chris Harris and his aptitude for forcing fumbles.

I suppose there is also upside in the sack category, with Julius Peppers entering the fold, but the Bears added him and booted their previous top two rushers -- ends Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown. DE Mark Anderson put up 12 sacks as a rookie in 2006, but his 9.5 in three years since make it tough to count on big production. DT Tommie Harris can also get to the quarterback but has similarly presented much more potential than actual output.

Add all that to an aging corps of linebackers and the continued downside of Hester transforming from game’s best return man to starting receiver, and you have a defense that remains barely draftable even late.

IDPs

Relative to position, Peppers is easily the top target here. He’s the only one that can limit his production, so as long as the star end doesn’t get too comfy in his new contract, he’ll continue to be a top five performer at his position.

Lance Briggs is still getting it done as well. He has finished six straight seasons with at least 102 total tackles, despite missing two games in the year of that lowest total. He and his scheme also provide some big-play upside (see three picks in 2008). Brian Urlacher might still be capable of some numbers if healthy, but his production dipped significantly in 2008 as he dealt with back and neck trouble, and he missed almost all of 2009 after fracturing a wrist in Week 1. Despite not missing a game in seven of his past nine seasons, Urlacher is unquestionably an injury risk at this point. A late shot on him in IDP leagues is still fine, though.

In the secondary, Chris Harris isn’t special but is worthwhile because of his background in turnovers. Major Wright will be interesting but shouldn’t be counted on right away based on the numbers of his predecessors in Chicago (and that’s assuming he comes away with the starting job).

Tillman is the most consistent contributor back there and a quality starter in corner-required leagues. Just know that he’ll probably miss two games or so for you and show up on the injury report in other weeks. Bowman brings the big-play upside and is being positioned to capitalize on it this year. If you play in a league with a deeper lineup and can afford to cover any bust weeks, he could bring some late value.

The kicker

This article has gone too long all ready, so let’s not spend more time here than we need to. Gould is a quality kicker -- not the best on the league, but consistent enough that you shouldn’t have to worry about him getting cut mid-year. His 2010 upside comes in the likelihood that his offense will be better.

Just once in the past 10 years did Chicago rank better than 23^rd in yards on offense. That came in 2006 (15^th), which was also (coincidentally?) Gould’s best year. He put up career bests in field goals and extra points that season and ranked as a top five kicker. Whatever you think of Martz, it’s likely that his offense produces more yardage, which will mean more scoring opportunities for the kicker.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63). Catch the Fantasy Lunch on BTR’s Fantasy Sports Channel every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday at 2 p.m. ET. Play free fantasy football at RapidDraft.com.

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